I wasn’t sure at the start, but now I believe Ukraine will win.
Since 2014, Ukraine has adopted modern light-infantry tactics from the West. They have learned it beautifully. Better, I think, than anyone expected. Ukrainian fighters are proving to be master tacticians, significantly outclassing their Russian counterparts. They are outthinking, outmaneuvering, outdoing Russia in every military regard.
Meanwhile, Russia is applying strategy last in vogue during ww2, and falling on its face when confronted by a modern military.
So, how will it play out?
It will come down to a diplomatic solution. Ukraine and Russia will eventually reach a deal. It will be a Ukraine win, because the deal will include Russian forces leaving Ukraine. If this deal happens sooner, Russia may retain Crimea, and may even turn the Luhansk and Donetsk regions into vassal states. Russian forces will return home, claiming an astonishing victory.
But…and this is important…if Russia doesn’t move fast on the diplomatic front, and continues getting pummeled by the fleet-footed and wily Ukrainians, Russia will lose the entire Donbas region.
Wait too much longer than that, something like a few months, and they will lose Crimea too.
By eric wicklund
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