Who will be the greatest beneficiary of Russia's miscalculated invasion of Ukraine? | latest news from nigerian newspapers today

Who will be the greatest beneficiary of Russia’s miscalculated invasion of Ukraine?

Russia-Ukraine War War World

Vladimir Putin may as well plan on many more meetings with Xi Jinping.

Invasions, and occupations which are not well planned and well intentioned can lead to unintended consequences. The U.S. ceased to be a credible superpower after the complete misdirection of the war on terror. The apparent rush for regime change and invasion of Iraq with falsified evidence, and later occupation of Iraq showed a complete lack of planning and complete unfamiliarity with the region. The ensuing years saw a majority of those taken to Guantanamo Bay, never charged with crimes, and eventually being released if they managed to survive the torture they endured. At the other end of the spectrum, the invasions which resulted in decades long occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq saw epic failures. In the case of Afghanistan power was handed back to the evolution of U.S. sponsored radical groups which had once been used to fight the Soviet Union during the 1980s. The end result has been the loss of ideals which once could be somewhat believed and the clear understanding that the U.S. had no genuine intent to further the cause of democracy abroad.

The idea of a strong Russia, was possible if Putin had played his cards right.

Who will be the greatest beneficiary of Russia's miscalculated invasion of Ukraine? | latest news from nigerian newspapers today
Who will be the greatest beneficiary of Russia’s miscalculated invasion of Ukraine? | latest news from nigerian newspapers today

President Putin though shown by Western media to be a calculated leader and one who seemingly managed to play a weak hand better than any other leader, was in actuality largely inflated to justify the continued expansion of NATO and at the same time perhaps create a situation where the prohibition of Russia joining Europe would come to a head and complete the cycle which began with ending the Soviet Union. Putin rather than playing his cards well, managed to create a Russia which survived as oil prices increased, but ultimately managed first to lose Russia’s industrial path to China, turning Russia into a provider of energy and weapons but not a leading economy. Vladimir Putin, who had mastered the art of limited military conflict as in Georgia and the annexing of Crimea, ended up losing this skill as well. The invasion of Ukraine will go down as his greatest miscalculation as there no victory be gained in Ukraine. Russia has embarked on a course where a lasting insurgency will come about, which it cannot afford to combat. In fact the insurgency is likely to be far better run than what occured in Afghanistan and better led. For Russia which will now face sanctions, and see a reduction in its economy of epic proportion, a scenario of decline has been created.
History is often made by miscalculations, the invasion of Ukraine is one such disaster.

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The likely move Putin will have to make will be an even greater tilt towards China. Putin will have created a Russian state which is an economic colony of China. China will have full access to Russian military equipment and finally be able to dictate the transfer of military technology from Russia. Oil and gas will be supplied to China at rates which will likely just sustain Russia as it once more sinks to the levels of poverty it faced during the 1990s. Incredibly, Putin has handed back legitimacy to U.S. led foreign policy in Europe and NATO will again find viability. At the same time Putin has created a Germany which will for the first time since World War II, actually begin to increase its defense budget and even possibly begin producing armaments in vast quantities. In every single way Putin has caused his own idea of what Russia could be fall to wayside. For China, the benefits of a weak Russia will prove to be a second wind. For U.S. manoeuvring around China’s economic might will be compensated by near unlimited access to Russia’s energy resources. Putin who began his career as leader of Russia to change the world order, succeeded only compromising Russia’s future. Perhaps the world ignored his actions when the Soviet Union collapsed. For contrary to rewritten history, Russian nationalism played a significant role in the demise of the Soviet Union. The idea of Communist Party members stealing state assets and then monetizing these assets led to creation of fortunes, these former Communist Party Members wanted the Soviet State to collapse quickly so they could economically benefit. Putin was part of this group and the very same people later blamed the outside world for their own deeds. This sentiment and nationalism was never genuine, and in reality it was only a matter of time before it would show results which neither benefited Russia nor the world. Their actions have now created a state which will become beholden to China.

By vickram aditya

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